Spring conditions are creating challenges for ranchers in the 2026 grazing season. Below-average temperatures have delayed cool-season forage growth.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor map released May 14, only 2% of the state is in drought, and 9% is abnormally dry. However, the entire state has received below-average precipitation over the last 60 days. Many areas are 50% or less than normal, with areas in the McKenzie and Mountrail counties at less than 10% of normal.

“Unfortunately, we are now halfway through the period for optimal forage production,” says Miranda Meehan, North Dakota State University Extension environmental stewardship specialist and disaster education coordinator.

North Dakota grasslands are dominated by cool-season grasses; as a result, about 80% of forage growth occurs due to precipitation from between April 1 and June 30. Precipitation received in July and August accounts for only 20% or less of forage production potential.

“So, if you are dry from April to June, plan for less forage from grazing and hay land sources,” says Meehan.

Calculating precipitation for forage growth

Because precipitation influences forage production, April-to-June precipitation can be used to predict potential forage production deficits. For example, if precipitation during this period is 20% of normal, producers can expect forage production to be 80% lower than normal.

“These production predictions can then be used to make forage and grazing management decisions earlier in the grazing season that balance resources and reduce risk,” says Kevin Sedivec, NDSU Extension rangeland management specialist.

Ranchers can use precipitation records for their location to predict forage production potential.

“By comparing the current year’s precipitation for this time period with the median precipitation for the last 30 years at a specific location, ranchers can calculate the probability of receiving adequate precipitation for forage growth,” says Sedivec.

For example, Grassy Butte typically receives 7.52 inches of precipitation between April and June and has received 0.35 inches as of May 15. The site needs 7.17 inches to achieve normal forage production.

The probability that Grassy Butte will receive adequate precipitation to achieve normal forage production levels can be determined by assessing the number of times it has received 7.17 inches in May and June in the last 30 years. Grassy Butte has received 7.17 inches four times in the last 30 years, so there is a 13% chance of receiving adequate precipitation to achieve normal forage growth in 2026.

Reviewing grazing plans

Given current conditions, ranchers should review and update their grazing and drought plans. NDSU Extension specialists offer the following management considerations:

• Evaluate alternative feed options and consider purchasing hay. Due to conditions in April, the growth of cool-season tame grass pastures or hay (crested wheatgrass, bromes) will be below average. 
• Be sure to access and monitor water availability and quality throughout the grazing period. Test water quality for total dissolved solids as well as sulfates. Water quality should be monitored as long as drought conditions persist. Ensure the water supply is adequate, and have a strategy in place when the water levels become low or toxic.
• Plan for removing cattle earlier, reducing the stocking rate or weaning calves early. Expect to seek alternative forages or feeding options if none of the above are desired.
• Take precautions to prevent nitrate poisoning because some plants accumulate nitrates during periods of drought.
• Maintain a monitoring plan to measure utilization and minimize overgrazing.
• Assess current year and carryover winter-feed inventories. Purchase hay resources as needed. Hay is affordable in the northern Great Plains, but prices could rise if drought conditions persist.
• Consider establishing annual forages to provide supplemental feed if there is potential for late-season precipitation.

Having a plan in place with well-defined trigger dates for implementing drought management strategies will help ranchers get through the drought and minimize losses. The longer that management decisions are put off, however, the fewer the options that will be available and the greater the risk of losses.

For more information about grazing management, visit ndsu.ag/grazing-26.

For more information about dry conditions, visit ndsu.ag/drought-26.

NDSU Agriculture Communication – May 18, 2026

Source: Miranda Meehan, 701-219-9251, miranda.meehan@ndsu.edu

Source: Kevin Sedivec, 701-779-4689, kevin.sedivec@ndsu.edu

Editor: Dominic Erickson, 701-231-5546, dominic.erickson@ndsu.edu