As winter slowly turns to spring, many ranchers are looking ahead to the grazing season. Much of North Dakota has received near-average fall and winter precipitation, except for the southeast corner of the state. This same pattern is depicted in current soil moisture estimates: while no part of North Dakota is currently experiencing drought, a small portion of the Red River Valley is abnormally dry.

Despite near-normal precipitation in the southwest, there are concerns about rapid drying in the state, which could lead to a loss of soil moisture due to the open winter. Miranda Meehan, North Dakota State University Extension livestock environmental stewardship specialist, says that these differences across the state will result in regional differences in forage production.

NDSU Extension’s forage and grazing outlook for 2026 is based on the previous fall’s moisture and the moisture received in May and June. Although snow is important for replenishing water sources, it contributes only about 25% of the total moisture for plant growth in most years. Because the ground is usually frozen when the snow melts, most of the moisture flows overland into water bodies.

Spring rain is still the most important moisture for overall forage production. Precipitation in April through June drives forage production in North Dakota. Due to the dominance of cool-season grasses, rainfall during this period accounts for more than 80% of forage production in the state.

The 2026 forage outlook starts with fall 2025 moisture. Cool-season grasses, which make up over 95% of grass hay and 70%-80% of pasture forage in North Dakota, develop new tillers in September and October that become the first growth in the spring. The absence of fall tillers can delay spring green-up by up to two weeks and impact overall forage production by 25%-50%.

Tillers that develop in the spring come from buds that break dormancy in the spring, usually when soil temperatures stay about 40 degrees Fahrenheit for three or more days. The tillers established in the fall will grow when temperatures reach 32 degrees for five consecutive days.

Impacts of fall moisture

According to Meehan, fall moisture in North Dakota was variable across the state, with about 75% of the state receiving 100% or more than normal precipitation and the southeast receiving 50%-75% of normal. The areas that received fall moisture would have experienced fall growth and tiller development. This resulted in good fall tiller development, meaning that spring rain will be the greatest driver of forage production for much of the state. However, the southeast part of the state is currently set up to have a below-normal forage production year.

Impacts of fall grazing management

Although much of the state had good fall tiller production, fall and winter grazing management can override this benefit. If these tillers are eaten or die due to drought, then spring growth must occur from new tillers developed in April and May.

Heavy grazing during the fall and/or winter, by removing the growing point (between the bottom two leaves) from tillers, will cause additional stress and tiller mortality. In the event of high fall tiller mortality, grasses will need to develop new tillers in the spring, delaying growth by two to three weeks.

Heavy grazing use in the fall not only delays growth but also reduces plant growth and forage production. Data collected by NDSU Extension found that severe grazing (removal of more than 80% available forage) reduced the growth of cool-season grasses and forage production. Forage production was reduced by as much as 57% on sites evaluated as having severe grazing use the previous fall.

“If you grazed your tillers short last fall or during the winter months, expect a delay in green-up and forage production in 2026,” says Kevin Sedivec, NDSU Extension rangeland management specialist. “Plan to defer these pastures from grazing in the spring of 2026.”

Plan for the 2026 grazing season

NDSU Extension developed the following scenarios based on spring precipitation and management:

• If spring precipitation is normal and fall moisture was near normal, and no overgrazing occurred in the fall, expect a normal turnout date of mid-May in the southern regions and late May in the northern regions of the state for grazing with normal pasture and hay production.
• If spring precipitation is normal, but the plants didn’t produce many fall tillers (such as in southeast North Dakota), expect a delay in plant development and lower production due to a loss in tiller development. Further reductions will occur if pastures were grazed heavily in the fall.
• If spring precipitation is 130% or more above normal, expect normal to above-normal forage production in southeast North Dakota.
• If spring precipitation is normal to below-normal, expect reduced forage production and a decline in forage quality earlier in the season for southern North Dakota.

Regardless of spring precipitation, to prevent reductions in plant health and production, pasture turnout should occur when the dominant forage species are ready to be grazed. Grazing readiness for most domesticated pastures, such as smooth brome, crested wheatgrass and orchardgrass, is at the three-leaf stage, whereas grazing readiness for most native range grasses is the three-and-a-half-leaf stage. For more information on evaluating grazing readiness, contact a local NDSU Extension agent or refer to ndsu.ag/grazing-2026.

“When production is low due to delayed tiller development, it becomes easy to run out of forage quickly if you go to full stock too early,” says Meehan. “This could lead to overuse and the earlier removal of animals from pasture than planned.”

This overuse during early green-up leads to reduced plant vigor and reduced leaf area, impacting photosynthesis and reducing food (carbohydrate) stored in roots.

“In the end, you may sacrifice 45%-60% of forage production for the year by grazing too early,” warns Meehan.

Timely precipitation is critical to forage growth and production. Equally critical is the use of management practices that maintain healthy, vigorous plant communities capable of withstanding disturbances.

Regardless of what spring brings, NDSU Extension recommends having a drought plan in place with well-defined trigger dates.

NDSU Agriculture Communication – March 18, 2026

Source: Miranda Meehan, 701-219-9251, miranda.meehan@ndsu.edu

Source: Kevin Sedivec, 701-799-4689, kevin.sedivec@ndsu.edu

Editor: Dominic Erickson, 701-218-5546, dominic.erickson@ndsu.edu