As Devils Lake continues to rise, the economic losses from agricultural land taken out of production also continue to grow, according to a study by the North Dakota State University Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics.

“The total impact on business activity in the region from direct and indirect losses this year is estimated at more than $194 million,” says Dwight Aakre, NDSU Extension Service farm management specialist. “The major losses are $57.6 million to the crop sector, $50.9 million to households (personal income) and $42.9 million to the retail trade sector.”

The remainder of the loss is distributed among several other sectors of the economy.

The study assumes that 163,450 acres will be out of production in 2011, as compared with 1993 when Devils Lake started to rise. Devils Lake was at an elevation of 1422.9 feet above sea level in 1993 and expected to rise to 1455 feet in 2011.

“The loss of business activity ultimately is reflected in lost jobs in the region,” says Bill Hodous, NDSU Extension Service Ramsey County agent. “Employment losses are estimated at 1,150 jobs for the region.”

Aakre, Hodous and Randal Coon, NDSU research specialist, authored the report.

“The analysis does not reflect the acres surrounding the lake that will be inaccessible due to submerged roads and growing wetland areas,” Hodous says. “My estimation for Ramsey County would indicate an additional 20,000-30,000 could be inaccessible because of submerged roads.”

The data used for the study included the average acreage of each crop grown in the area, 5-year average yield for each crop and estimated market price of each crop.

“This analysis quantifies the extent of lost agricultural production in the Devils Lake Basin due to rising water levels in Devils Lake, Stump Lake and the surrounding area,” Aakre says.

NDSU Agricultural Communication - March 21, 2011