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Latest Update

Adnan Akyuz, Ph.D State Climatologist

January 14, 2021 PowerPoint

01/14/21

• • In Summary:

    • Based on the DM map published this morning, 85% of the state is in at least Moderate Drought, a 4% increase compared to the last month. The extreme drought area was eliminated based on the meteorological conditions in 30 and 60 day periods shown in Slides 9 and 10. Sixty-two percent of the state is in Severe Drought that is a three prevent increase compared to a month ago (Slide 12). 
    • The estimated population in the drought area is 496,301, which adds 27,886 more people compared to a month ago.
    • However, the statewide drought conditions improved by 3 DSCI points compared to the last month (Slide 15). The elimination of the extreme drought more than compensated for the expansion of the severe drought into broader areas in the state.
    • I started using a new satellite-based soil moisture model, NASA's real-time land information system, modeling the soil moisture ranking percentiles of the soil profile from the surface to  100 cm. It seems to model frozen soil better than the CPC model. I appreciate your comments.

     

    • Outlooks:
    • Week One (January 15 through 21): Wetter than average along the RRV, near normal elsewhere. Much-warmer-than-average conditions (Slide 19).
    • Week Two (January 22 through 28):  Near-average precipitation and cooler-than-average conditions (Slide 20).
    • Weeks three and four (January 23 through February 5): Better chance of having wetter in the west and equal chances elsewhere. No discernable outlook in terms of temperature (Slide 21).
    • February through April 2021: Based on the CPC’s Monthly Outlook published on December 17, ND is under the influence of LaNiña impact-cooler and wetter than average bias in the forecast. (Slide 23)

Producers Should Be Prepared for Drought

News Release January 11, 2021

Weather Conditions Updated Every 5 Minutes

The North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network (NDAWN) posts weather data every 5 minutes in all stations in the network. The data can be accessed as a table or map.

Get the latest weather conditions