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Weather Forecast (08/15/19)

The August 15 through August 21, 2019 Weather Summary and Outlook

The month of August so far has recorded temperatures generally below average. The first week of August was mostly above average but this past week was well below normal bringing the first half of the month cooler than average for most areas.

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The cool temperatures in the past several days were mostly associated with the abundant cloud cover associated with periods of rain. Certainly not all areas, but much of the North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network (NDAWN) has recorded between one to three inches of rain during the first two weeks of the month (Figure 2). This is well above average for the period (Figure 3) and much of western North Dakota has already recorded above average rain for the month, with many more chances of rain in the near future.

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Temperatures are expected to slowly warm up in the next couple of days until another cold front sweeps across the northern plains this weekend. The warmest day in the short term will likely be Saturday for everyone, except the northwest corner of North Dakota, before a cold front comes in and cools the region off significantly for Sunday. There will be some rain/thunderstorms in the area today (Thursday) as the warmer air moves in, then another round of thunderstorms Saturday/Saturday night as that cold front moves through. Then another surge of warm air is expected early next week with yet another threat of storms by the middle of next week. In other words, there will be some noticeable ups and downs to the temperatures in the next week and those changes will come with rain and thunderstorms. Of course, amounts are going to vary, but the odds favor almost all locations recording rain in the next week, with potential of rain amounts exceeding 1 inch in many areas.

The warm periods and the cool periods will probably offset each other, with overall temperatures near average in the next week. My projected growing degree days (GDDs) for the next seven days for Base 50°, 44° and 32° is presented in Figure 4.

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Using May 5 as a planting date, accumulated growing degree days for wheat (base temperature 32°) is given in Figure 5. You can calculate wheat growing degree days based on your exact planting date(s) here: https://ndawn.ndsu.nodak.edu/wheat-growing-degree-days.html

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Using May 15 as a planting date, accumulated growing degree days for corn (base temperature 50°) is given in Figure 6. You can calculate corn growing degree days based on your exact planting date(s) here: https://ndawn.ndsu.nodak.edu/corn-growing-degree-days.html.

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Soybeans also use base 50° like corn, but NDAWN has a special tool for soybeans that is based on your planting date and cultivar relative maturity dates.  Based on average temperatures for your closest NDAWN station, the tool gives you GDDs based on your planting date(s) and cultivar maturity information you provide.. That tool can be found here: https://ndawn.ndsu.nodak.edu/soybean-growing-degree-days.html

 

Daryl Ritchison

Meteorologist

Director of the North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network

 

This site is supported in part by the Crop Protection and Pest Management Program [grant no. 2017-70006-27144/accession 1013592] from the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed are those of the website author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

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