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Weather Forecast: (07/20/17)

The July 20 through July 26, 2017 Weather Summary/Outlook

It is often said that dry begets dry and wet begets wet. Although wet top soils will allow for some additional rain from convectively induced showers and thunderstorms, or dry soils may result in less moisture that falls, these impacts are very minimal and those statements are more myth than fact. Instead, our moisture or lack of it comes from large scale hemispheric circulation patterns, and so far this year the northern plains have simply not been able to tap into Gulf of Mexico moisture because of a nonconducive storm tracking. Rain totals from July 12 to July 18 at the North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network (NDAWN) stations are presented below. This does not include what rain was recorded yesterday when some locations recorded over 1 inch of rain, especially across the southern part of the state.

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Temperatures were cooler than normal across the Red River Valley into western Minnesota during the past week with western North Dakota once again recording above average temperatures.

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The persistent northwest flow at the mid-levels of the atmosphere will flatten out in the next week to a more westerly flow. Although this is not necessarily a wet flow, this subtle shift does allow for more moisture to flow into the region than a northwest flow. The best time frames for thunderstorms in the next seven days will be on Friday (both morning and night), next Monday into Monday Night and toward the middle of next week. Other days may bring more isolated or spotty events. All locations will have a chance of rain from all of these events, but the lowest probabilities will be in the southwestern portion of the state that have been the driest, as the main storm track looks to be from northwestern to southeastern North Dakota.

Temperatures are expected to be close to or a bit below average for the time of year during this forecast period. The projected growing degree days (GDDs), base 32°, 44° and 50  for the period July 20 through July 26 is presented below. Most of North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota will record about the same number of GDDs as last week.

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With an expectation of near average temperatures and a few more chances of rain this week, several more hours with relative humidity hours above 85% is projected during this forecast period in northern and eastern North Dakota than were recorded during this past week. The projected hours for the period July 20 through July 26, 2017 is presented in the graphic below.

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Using May 10, 2017 as an average planting date, the number of corn growing degree days (Base 50°) accumulated through July 18 is depicted below. The exact numbers based on your actual planting date(s) can be found here: https://ndawn.ndsu.nodak.edu/corn-growing-degree-days.html

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Using a planting date of May 1, 2017, the number of wheat growing degree days (Base 32°) accumulated through July 18 is presented below. The exact numbers based on your actual planting date(s) can be found here: https://ndawn.ndsu.nodak.edu/wheat-growing-degree-days.html

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Daryl Ritchison

Meteorologist

Interim Director of the North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network

 

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