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Weather Forecast: (07/06/17)

The July 6 through July 12, 2017 Weather Summary/Outlook

It definitely warmed up the last few days, yet, most of this past week were on the cool side, especially in eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota where temperatures averaged below normal. The higher temperatures reached western North Dakota a couple of days earlier where temperatures finished noticeably above average this past week. The next 7 days will likely have all North Dakota Agricultural stations recording above average temperatures and in many locations, the temperatures will be well above the average.

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Most of the rain that fell in the last week either occurred on Wednesday, June 28 or during the July 3 through July 4 time frame. There were some pockets of rain in western North Dakota during the week but most of the driest locations so far this summer recorded very little rain. These next 7 days not only look dry in western North Dakota, but even in eastern North Dakota any beneficial rain looks very localized.

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This summer has been dominated by an upper level wind flow from the northwest. A northwest flow tends to be a dry flow. Since 1993 and the start of the so-called “wet cycle”, we have had numerous summer where the upper level flow was more persistently from the southwest. There are no current signs of a pattern shift meaning that at least through the first half of July the rains will stay scattered and infrequent. Plus, at least during this next 7 to 10 day period the upper-level ridge of high pressure that has been centered just to our west keeping us in a northwesterly flow aloft will be more centered over western North Dakota. What this means is not only will the area be mostly dry, but we will also experience more days with above average temperatures than below average temperatures. The combination of dry and warm will of course increase crop stress even in locations that have recorded adequate precipitation.

The projected growing degree days, base 32°, 44° and 50  for the period July 6, through July 12 is presented below. Most areas will see a 20% to 25% increase over what was recorded this past week.

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Mostly dry and warm conditions will mean fewer than average hours with low level relative humidity hours above 85% during this forecast period. The projected hours for the period July 6 through July 12, 2017 is presented in the graphic below.

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Using May 10, 2017 as an average planting date, the number of corn growing degree days accumulated through July 4 is depicted below. The exact numbers based on your actual planting date(s) can be found here: https://ndawn.ndsu.nodak.edu/corn-growing-degree-days.html Other agricultural tools can be found in the applications tab in the menu on the left side of the ndawn.org website.

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Using a plantiing date of May 1, 2017, the number of wheat growing degree days accumulated through July 4 is presented below. The exact numbers based on your actual planting date(s) can be found here: https://ndawn.ndsu.nodak.edu/wheat-growing-degree-days.html

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Daryl Ritchison

Meteorologist

Interim Director of the North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network

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