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Weather Forecast (06/28/18)

The June 28 through July 4, 2018 Weather Summary and Outlook

The past seven days were quite warm across the northern portion of North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota with temperature four to six degrees above average. Southern North Dakota the temperatures were closer to the current 30 year average with temperature at or only one to two degrees above average. It is likely that these next seven days will finish above average as well.

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The rain was expected to be spottier this past week with western and southern portions of the North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network (NDAWN) having the highest probabilities for rain. The rain was spotty, but even northeastern North Dakota had some pockets of one inch for more rain amounts. Although our station near Dunn Center in Dunn County was missed by the thunderstorms Tuesday evening, many other locations in Dunn, southern Mercer into western Morton County where there is currently no NDAWN station did record significant rains with 1” or more reported in several locations in those counties.

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There has certainly been some severe weather in the region this year. Mid-May to mid-July tends to be the most active period of severe weather in North Dakota and northern Minnesota. However; the severe weather has fortunately been spotty and so far, we have yet to experience a widespread severe weather event in 2018. That may change today. Tornadoes, of course, are never widespread events, but localized, and even hail tends to create damage in narrow, sometimes long corridors. Therefore, widespread severe weather in our area mostly occurs because of wind damage associated with long duration bow echoes. Today (Thursday) is a day when all three elements will come into play and it is certainly possible that a bow echo or two may develop this afternoon and evening and in turn bring with it the possibility of widespread severe weather damage in the next 24 hours. Plus, any time you have a threat of severe weather you also have the possibilities of localized heavy rainfall, which will also be a potential factor in the weather over the next 24 hours. Today is one of those days to keep an eye on the weather for possible watches and warnings that may be issued. After today and tonight, there will be some isolated to scattered storms on other days, but anything widespread looks to be holding off until next week. The storms in the next 24 hours will likely bring cooler air into the region Friday into Saturday, but the above average temperatures are expected to return quickly, so the odds favor the next 7 days finishing with above average temperatures in most of the region once again. My projected growing degree days (GDDs) base 50°, 44° and 32° for the next seven days is presented in Figure 3 for the period of June 28 through July 4, 2018.

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Because of the rain possibility today and other days in the next week, the number of hours with relative humidity above 85% is projected to be fairly high in the next week (see Figure 4). As a reminder, these estimates are for sensor height (about 5 feet above the ground) and therefore, the plants nearer to the surface will likely have more hours than shown with these higher humidity values, plus there should be a few mornings with moderate to heavy dew in the locations that record the most rains from the thunderstorms.

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Using May 5 as a planting date, the accumulated wheat growing degree days (Based 32°) through June 26, 2018 is presented in Figure 5. Most locastion in northern to eastern North Dakota (and stations in Minnesota) are running about 200 to 250 more GDDs than last year (southwestern ND similar to last year) based on that May 5 planting date. You can find your exact GDDs for your planting date(s) at: https://ndawn.ndsu.nodak.edu/wheat-growing-degree-days.html

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Using May 10 as a planting date, the corn accumulated growing degree days (Base 50°) through June 26, 2018 is presented in Figure 6. Most locastion in northern to eastern North Dakota (and stations in Minnesota) are running about 180 to 220 more GDDs than last year (southwestern ND similar to last year) based on that May 10 planting date. You can find your exact GDDs for your planting date(s) at: https://ndawn.ndsu.nodak.edu/corn-growing-degree-days.html

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Daryl Ritchison

Meteorologist

Interim Director of the North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network

This site is supported in part by the Crop Protection and Pest Management Program [grant no. 2017-70006-27144/accession 1013592] from the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed are those of the website author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

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