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Weather Forecast: (06/15/17)

The June 15 through June 21, 2017 Weather Summary/Outlook

The June 15 through June 21, 2017 Weather Summary/Outlook

This past week was another warm period across much of the North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network (NDAWN).  Temperatures were generally 4° to 8° above average with some exceptions near the North Dakota / Montana border and also into northwestern Minnesota where it was a bit cooler.  After three weeks with above average temperatures it appears a cooling trend will be with us for most of this upcoming seven day period.

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There were numerous rain events in the past week.  Most of which were spotty and light.  The exceptions were a fairly widespread rain last Friday evening across especially northeastern North Dakota and the other was two waves of rainfall on Tuesday.  One in the morning and another on Tuesday evening.  There was severe weather on both Friday and Tuesday causing some crop damage.  The graphic below below does not include the rain that fell on Wednesday because of writing deadlines for this publication.  But several locations in northwestern and north central North Dakota recorded anywhere from 0.50 to 1.25 inches of rain on Wednesday, meaning that much of the region recorded beneficial rainfall in recent days after several weeks of mostly dry conditions.   Southwestern North Dakota is a noticeable exception as the rain continues to miss that part of the state.

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The same mechanisms that brought the rain to the region over the past week will also bring an end to the recent stretch of above average temperatures.  Several shots of cool Canadian air will move across the northern plains in the next 7 to 10 days.  As each push of cooler air moves through, there will be periods of scattered thunderstorms, but no widespread heavy events are expected.  Most of the activity with be associated with afternoon showers and thunderstorms developing with daytime heating.   An “upper air disturbance” will move through the area on Saturday and it is on that day that the most widespread rain event is expected during this forecast period.  Other days the precipitation will be hit and miss.  With the cooler temperatures in place in combination with what precipitation has fallen recently, plus some additional moisture likely, stress to crops will lessen in the short term.  The exception to this will be in southwestern North Dakota where the rains have been light and that area will probably not record much in the next week.  These cooler temperatures will mean fewer growing degree days (GDDs).  Most locations will be recorded approximately 25% fewer than last week. The projected GDDs for the next 7 days, Base 32°, 44° and 50° are presented below. 

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With the cooler air and higher soil moisture content will come a few more hours with high relative humidity (RH) than what was recorded last week.  But the Canadian air has low dew points associated it, meaning although there will be an increase in high RH hours over last week, the numbers would still be lower than average for this time of year.

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Using May 10, 2017 as an average planting date, the number of corn growing degree days accumulated through June 13 is depicted below. The exact numbers based on your actual planting date(s) can be found on NDAWN Center. Other agricultural tools can be found in the applications tab in the menu on the left side of the ndawn.org website.

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Using a plantiing date of May 1, 2017, the number of wheat growing degree days accumulated through June 13 is presented below.  The exact numbers based on your actual planting date(s) can be found on the NDAWN Center site

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Daryl Ritchison

Meteorologist

Interim Director of the North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network

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