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Weather Forecast (06/13/19)

The June 13 through June 19, 2019 Weather Summary and Outlook

For the second straight week southeastern North Dakota into west central Minnesota recorded temperatures above average for the time of year.  Elsewhere, temperatures were near average with locations near the North Dakota/Montana border recording cooler than average temperatures (Figure 1).  That cooler air in the western part of the North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network (NDAWN) pushed through the rest of the region earlier this week and cooler than average temperatures look to be sticking around for at least another week.

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That transition from the warmer temperatures of last week to our current cooler weather triggered off some showers and thunderstorms, especially on Friday and Saturday.  Almost all NDAWN stations recorded at least some precipitation during that stretch with parts of northeastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota recording the most widespread, heavier rain (Figure 2).

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The upper-level wind has now shifted to a northwest flow, meaning the main Jetstream is coming from the prairie provinces of Canada through our area.  This leads to a ridge over the western part of the North American continent and a trough in the east.  Therefore, from the Rocky Mountains and westward, temperatures will be mostly above average and the southeastern part of Canada and the eastern part of the United States will see mostly below average temperatures.  That leaves our region in the middle.  In the short term, the next couple of days we will experience a brief warmup, but then cooler air will once again dominate our weather.   Although an isolated shower could pop up on any day, the most widespread rain threats will occur with the change back to cooler air that will be moving in this weekend, especially Saturday and again next Tuesday as the warmer air returns.

There will be some exceptions on Thursday and Friday, but overall, most of the next seven or more days will record below average temperatures. My projected growing degree days (GDDs) for the next seven days for Base 50°, 44° and 32° is presented in Figure 3.  Almost all locations will be recording noticeably fewer GDDs this week than what was recorded last week.

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Using May 5 as a planting date, accumulated growing degree days for wheat (base temperature 32°) is given in Figure 4.   You can calculate wheat growing degree days based on your exact planting date(s) here:  https://ndawn.ndsu.nodak.edu/wheat-growing-degree-days.html

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Using May 15 as a planting date, accumulated growing degree days for corn (base temperature 50°) is given in Figure 5.   You can calculate corn growing degree days based on your exact planting date(s) here:  https://ndawn.ndsu.nodak.edu/corn-growing-degree-days.html

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Daryl Ritchison

Meteorologist

Director of the North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network

This site is supported in part by the Crop Protection and Pest Management Program [grant no. 2017-70006-27144/accession 1013592] from the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed are those of the website author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

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