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Weather Forecast (06/03/21)

The June 3 to June 9, 2021 Weather Summary and Outlook

June 1 marked the first day of meteorological summer. Any forecasts you may have heard for this summer would be for the period of June 1 through August 31. The first week of summer looks to be very warm. Temperatures are expected to be well above average. You may recall June 2020 also started very warm with temperature approaching 100°.  June 2021 will be similar, but the heat this year will be longer lasting than a year ago. Plus, last year most areas still had adequate or above normal soil moisture associated with the extremely wet autumn of 2019. This year, most areas have a dry soil profile, especially in the upper 6 inches. What this will mean is extreme crop stress as this several day stretch of high temperatures will also come with little or no rainfall. Saturday and maybe early next week look to be the best chances for rain, but the odds favor scattered, not widespread, precipitation. Plus, with soils still mostly exposed, the topsoil temperatures could exceed the air temperatures in the afternoons with relative humidity values very low. 

Instead of looking at last week’s rain and temperatures, Figures 1 and 2 this week have the statistics for May. May was overall a cool month with most NDAWN stations recording temperatures 1° to 3° below normal. Rain was a mixed bag, with some locations above average, some near average and others below average. A reminder that background contouring does not necessarily reflect any spot outside of the North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network (NDAWN) station.

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The projected growing degree days (GDDs) base 32°, 44° and 50° for the period of June 3 through June 9, 2021 can be found in Figure 3.  A reminder that most growing degree computations do not give credit for high temperatures above 86°. Meaning the number of growing degree days calculations in Figure 3 are based on a maximum high temperature of 86°. This means there will be only small GDD differences across North Dakota during the week with the main variations associated with the minimums each day. 

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Using May 1 as a planting date, accumulated growing degree days for wheat (base temperature 32°) is given in Figure 4. You can calculate wheat growing degree days based on your exact planting date(s) here:  https://ndawn.ndsu.nodak.edu/wheat-growing-degree-days.html

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Using May 10 as a planting date, accumulated growing degree days for corn (base temperature 50°) is given in Figure 5. You can calculate corn growing degree days based on your exact planting date(s) here:   https://ndawn.ndsu.nodak.edu/corn-growing-degree-days.html

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Soybeans also use base 50° like corn, but NDAWN has a special tool for soybeans that, based on your planting date and cultivar, can estimate maturity dates based on average temperatures, as well as give you GDDs based on your planting date(s) you set. That tool can be found here: https://ndawn.ndsu.nodak.edu/soybean-growing-degree-days.html Because of the replanting of soybeans associated with the freezing temperatures on May 28 in particular, this tool might be especially useful this year. If you have never used it before, you should check it out. 

 

Daryl Ritchison

Meteorologist

Director of the North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network

This site is supported in part by the Crop Protection and Pest Management Program [grant no. 2017-70006-27144/accession 1013592] from the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed are those of the website author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

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