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Weather Forecast (05/28/20)

The May 28 to June 3, 2020 Weather Summary and Outlook

This past spring has not recorded too many periods with above average temperatures, but this past week was one of them. The North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network (NDAWN) stations near the North Dakota/Montana border recorded temperatures near average, but the rest of the network recorded temperatures well above average with stations in northeastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota recording temperature around 10 degrees above normal (Figure 1). These next 7 days are expected to finish near to a bit above average because of some warm air comnig next week, but in the short term, today (Thursday) through the weekend will be chilly.  This colder air will bring frost (36° or cooler) possibilities especially in areas near and north of Highway 2 on both Friday and Saturday mornings. In fact, parts of northern Minnesota may even get into the 30s again on Sunday morning.

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Last week I had mentioned that rainfall amounts in the next 7 days would probably be highly variable across the region. That was certainly the case with rainfall totals ranging from a trace to well over 1 inch. The heaviest rain fell in parts of northcentral and northeastern North Dakota (Figure 2)

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The highest total at a NDAWN station was at the Niles where 2.11 inches total was measured, with 1.75 inches of that recorded on May 23 through May 24 at 1:00 PM (Figure 3).  Those higher totals were associated with a band of thunderstorms that formed along a frontal boundary on May 23, 2020 with then some additional post frontal precipitation on May 24. Although there will likely be some scattered precipitation during this next week, as of this writing it does not appear that most locations will record much in the way of rain until the middle or end of next week.

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A ridge of high pressure aloft is forming to our west. This will push the jetstream well north into far western Canada. In turn, that will shift the upper-level wind to the north or northwest over the northern plains this weekend. That northernly flow will allow some chilly Canadian air will move into the region beginning today and lingering through Sunday. Once we move beyond the weekend, that ridge of high pressure will shift east and be centered over North Dakota. This will mean an extended period of warm temperatures next week. As previously mentioned the colder air in the short term could mean areas of frost, especially over northern areas that have drier soils or in the lower portions of fields.

The projected growing degree days (GDDs) base 32°, 44° and 50° for the period of May 28 through June 3, 2020 can be found in Figure 4. Most of the GDDs this period will come next week with the projected warmer temperatures.

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One final note. If you need access to historical NDAWN data from a station not yet available on our website. All NDAWN stations have a “cloud service” available to them. These additional data are available at:

stationname.ndawn.org. Examples would be crystal.ndawn.org and webster.ndawn.org. If the station is two words, then an example would be saintthomas.ndawn.org or forestriver.ndawn.org. The NDAWN team has installed new stations near Glyndon, MN and Stirum, ND and those data are available at glyndon.ndawn.org and stirum.ndawn.org.

 

Daryl Ritchison

Meteorologist

Director of the North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network

This site is supported in part by the Crop Protection and Pest Management Program [grant no. 2017-70006-27144/accession 1013592] from the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed are those of the website author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

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