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Weather Forecast (05/23/19)

The May 23 through May 29, 2019 Weather Summary and Outlook

The rain never falls evenly across the area of course, but just about everyone recorded some rainfall in the past week with much of southern North Dakota into west central Minnesota recording 1 to 2 inches (Figure 1).

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Because of deadlines, Figure 1 only goes through Tuesday, May 21, but Figure 2 includes rain through 11:00 AM yesterday (May 22).   Last week in this report I mentioned three storms moving through the region in the next 10 days.  Number one was last weekend, number two was Tuesday night into Wednesday, and the third is expected later tonight (Thursday, May 23) through tomorrow.  The next wave will likely impact southern North Dakota and west central Minnesota a bit more than northern locations, with northwestern North Dakota probably seeing the lightest totals.  Odds favor much of the region recording 0.25 to 0.75 inches of rainfall, with localized areas getting more/less from the next storm.

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We did experience a couple of mild days, but overall it was another cool week with temperatures between 4° and 8° below average (Figure 3).  As many of you probably know, it was cold enough for several inches of snow to fall over portions of southwestern North Dakota from the storm last weekend.   Average highs are now in the 70s at most NDAWN locations, meaning, that even with warmer temperatures expected over the next week, temperatures overall will continue to be near or slightly below normal through the rest of this month.

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After the next storm exits the area Friday night, there appears to be a period of drier weather moving into North Dakota and into northwestern Minnesota.  The main storm track will be shifting southward with South Dakota and southern Minnesota and points southward experiencing a few upper-air disturbances dropping some rainfall.  More than likely at least one of those disturbances will impact us, but the odds don’t favor a widespread heavy rainfall, meaning, with luck, “Plant19” will be able to get mostly finished before the end of the month.  My estimated Growing Degree Days (GDDs) for base temperatures of 32°, 44° and 50° are presented in Figure 4.

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 Daryl Ritchison

Meteorologist

Director of the North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network

 

 

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