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Weather Forecast (05/21/20)

The May 21 through May 27, 2019 Weather Summary and Outlook

The long wait for warmer weather finally ended this past week.  Temperatures ranged from a bit below to a bit above average this past week with most of the cooler temperatures occurring late last week (Figure 1). These next 7 days will overall average above seasonal normals, but not on all 7 days as there will be at least one chilly day in most locations. The coolest day will be on Saturday and/or Sunday depending on your location but the rest of the days are expected to be near or above average. These cooler days are expected mostly because of cloud cover and potential precipitation meaning no frost is expected during this period, but I have a feeling we will still experience at least one more morning with temperatures near freezing yet this spring.

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Last week I had mentioned there was a possibility that the warm air as it surged into the area may stall and bring with it a band of heavier rain.  There were two areas of heavy rain this past week. One across parts of South Dakota and especially southern Minnesota where anywhere from 2 to 4 inches of rain, with localized higher amounts fell. That system was expected to stay mostly to our south as it did. The second occurred to our north, especially in Saskatchewan where some localized 1 inch + amounts occurred. A piece of that disturbance did bring some very isolated 1 inch rains to northwestern North Dakota that impacted our Epping NDAWN (North Dakota Agricultural Weather) station but overall North Dakota was spared the heavier rain which allowed planting to continue or in other locations for significant drying to occur (Figure 2).

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In the next week there will be three disturbances that will bring with it some rain. The first will be today (Thursday) in especially far western North Dakota. That same disturbance will also bring some hit and miss showers and thunderstorms to eastern North Dakota tonight (Thursday) into Friday. The second possibility looks to be Saturday into Sunday. The weekend storm should be more widespread and although amounts will vary greatly across the state, almost the entire region will at least have a chance of recording rain this weekend. The third chance looks to be coming toward the middle of next week. Even with these three disturbances, there should be many opportunities to get out in the field in the next 7 days and as previously mentioned outside of a day or two of cooler temperatures this weekend, overall the next week looks above average for temperatures.

The projected growing degree days (GDDs) base 32°, 44° and 50° for the period of May 14 through May 20, 2020 can be found in Figure 3.

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Daryl Ritchison

Meteorologist

Director of the North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network

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