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Weather Forecast (05/16/19)

The May 16 through May 22, 2019 Weather Summary and Outlook

Some much warmer temperatures moved into the region this week, yet, overall, the temperatures were still a bit below average for the seven day period ending May 14. The next seven days look to be quite cool with temperatures expected to be well below average.

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The warmth of the past few days did push soil temperatures close to or above 50° in most areas.  Figure 2 gives the weekly average bare soil temperature at 4 inches but on Tuesday, May 14, 2019 much of the NDAWN mesonet was reporting a daily average close to 60°. The projected cooler (and damp) weather over the next week will cause the bare soil temperatures to likely drop in to the 40s and probably not warming up to current levels again until Memorial Day weekend.

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There were pockets of quarter inch or greater rain totals this past week, but most of the region recorded much less than that. Figure 3 summarizes the weekly rainfall totals at the NDAWN stations but do not include what fell yesterday (Wednesday, May 15).

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As already hinted, the warmth from the past few days has ended for now and we will be back into the cooler than average temperature regime that has dominated the weather since the middle of January. With the coolness, several rain threats will come in the next week. Some parts of North Dakota may record rain every day from Friday (May 17) through next Friday (May 24). Granted, not all locations are going to record some rainfall each day, but most locations will probably record rain on several days in the next week. The upper-level wind flow will be coming in from the southwest over the next week bringing with it several disturbances plus ample moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. There will be several days of severe weather to our south, but that will stay to our south. Instead, we will deal with periods of cold rain. Western North Dakota may even be cold enough to record some snowflakes. Because cloudy conditions on many days can add to the coolness, frost will also be possible on any morning that the sky would happen to be clear.

Because of the cool and overall damp pattern of the next week, there will be few Growing Degree Days (GDDs) recorded. In fact, few if any, Base 50° GDDs are expected (used for corn and soybeans). Although all of the region is expecting rainfall in the next week, the Red River Valley has the highest potential to record the most rain. Because several periods of rain are expected, each event may not necessarily bring high amounts of precipitation, but over the next six to ten days, 1 to 2-inch amounts are clearly possible in some areas and, of course, localized areas may always get more. My projected GDDs for the period of May 16 through May 22 is presented in Figure 4. Base 50 is not included this week since the weekly totals at that level will be near zero at most locations.

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Daryl Ritchison

Meteorologist

Interim Director of the North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network

This site is supported in part by the Crop Protection and Pest Management Program [grant no. 2017-70006-27144/accession 1013592] from the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed are those of the website author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

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