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Weather Forecast (05/14/20)

The May 14 through May 20, 2019 Weather Summary and Outlook

The past week was about as cold as you will ever experience for this time of year. Temperatures ranged from 10 to 15 degrees below average (Figure 1). This next week will see a dramatic change with temperatures on some days well above average, but those warmer temperatures may come with localized heavy rainfall, which I will discuss in more detail later in this report.

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Because of deadlines, Figure 2 only goes through Tuesday, May 12, but Figure 3 includes rain through 10:30 AM yesterday (May 13). The rain from Wednesday was mostly on the light side courtesy of the cold dry air that was in place. As the rain moved across the region, much of it evaporated before reaching the ground. There will be some scattered, mostly light rain across the northern part of the area today (Thursday), then another system with rain that will impact locations near and south of Interstate 94 on Friday Night into Saturday Morning.

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The rain on Friday Night and Saturday is associated with a strong push of warm air that will temporarily be moving into the northern plains. The warmest days look to be Monday and Tuesday of next week. Temperatures those two days look to be in the 70s and even some 80s. In fact, I would not be surprise if an NDAWN station or two hits or comes close to 90° if all goes according to plan. That warm air will be associated with a warm front, that as of this writing looks to stall over the region next week. That boundary between warm and somewhat humid air and the cooler air that will be nearby will probably serve as a focus for rain and thunderstorms. That unfortunately, would bring the prospect for heavier rain in parts of North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota. Where that boundary sets up will determine where that potential heavier rain may fall. Therefore, yes, there is good news that temperatures will finally bring the needed heat units (Growing Degree Days) that are needed, but the warmer air will also bring threats of bands of heavier rain that most areas would not welcome. After that period warmth for a few days, cooler air will return, but no where near as cold as it was this past week.

 

The projected Growing Degree Days (GDDs) base 32°, 44° and 50° for the period of May 14 through May 20, 2020 can be found in Figure 4. Most of the GDDs projected for the next 7 days will come during the Sunday through Tuesday timeframe.

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Daryl Ritchison

Meteorologist

Director of the North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network

 

 

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