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Weather Forecast (05/10/18)

The May 10 through May 16, 2018 Weather Summary/Outlook

The May 10 through May 16, 2018 Weather Summary/Outlook

It is quite common for rain to fall with highly variable amounts from spot to spot in our region. That was certianly the case with the rain from Tuesday into Tuesday Night. East central North Dakota into portions of the central Red River Valley in Minnesota recorded rainfall from near 1 inch to over 1.5 inches from a slow moving upper-air disturbance in combination with some thunderstorms. Whereas much of central and western North Dakota recorded little if any rain. The graphic below shows the rain totals at the North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network (NDAWN) stations from May 1 through May 8. The totals do not include what fell yesterday (Wednesday, May 9).


With the exception of the past couple of days, most of May has been quite warm and dry. Average temperature departures from normal have been in the 4° to 8° above the current 30 year mean for much of the area so far this month. That warmth has ended for now with temperatures trending much cooler today (Thursday) into Saturday. The temperatures yesterday and what is coming the next couple of days is a reminder that spring usually comes in spurts. Warm periods followed by cool periods. We will occasionally get a spring that stays warm, but that is the exception rather than the rule. Temperature departures from average during the May 1 through May 8 period are presented below.


Far southern North Dakota may record some rain later tonight into Friday, but most of that storm is expected to stay in South Dakota into southern Minnesota. This means that much of our area will probably wait until early next week for our next rain possibilities.  The most likely time frame next week look to be Tuesday/Wednesday. The cool air in place over the next 72 hours will be following by temperatures climbing to near or slightly above average Sunday/Monday. The rain possibilities next Tuesday/Wednesday will probably mean slightly cooler air again because of the cloud cover associated with the rain. What that all means is that growing degree days (GDDs) over the next week will be noticeably lower than what was recorded in the past 7 days. My projected GDDs from May 10 through May 16, based 50°, 44° and 32° is presented in the graphic below.


Daryl Ritchison


Interim Director of the North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network



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