Corn Production Indicators Report: Trend and Risk Analysis (EC1996, Dec. 2020)

This report presents organized and structured information on corn production indicators across geographical space and through time.

Saleem Shaik, Professor and Director, Center for Agricultural Policy and Trade Studies

Kwame Asiam Addey, Ph.D. Candidate

Availability: Web only

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Executive Summary

This report presents organized and structured information on corn production indicators across geographical space and through time. The indicators considered are planted acreage, harvested acreage, production, yield, revenue and price. The levels of aggregation are global, U.S. and North Dakota.

The information is presented in the form of trends and descriptive statistics. The former reveals the direction of the growth, while the latter reveals the magnitude of expectations. The descriptive statistics are represented by the mean, standard deviation and coefficient of variation. To gauge potential competition, the share contribution of the indicators to the total also is computed.

The report is presented in four sections: (I) world countries trend and risk, (II) U.S. states trend and risk, (III) North Dakota counties trend and risk and (IV) Risk or variance decomposition and sources of variation.

At the global level, the trends of the indicators are presented in addition to the descriptive statistics of the top 15 producing countries. The trends and descriptive statistics for the top 15 producing states also are provided at the U.S. level. At the North Dakota level of aggregation, we provide the trends and descriptive statistics of the top 15 producing counties.

This report is important because it serves as an informational guide to corn producers in the state, U.S. and the world. In the current environment, the success (productivity and net farm income stability) of agricultural production is dependent on accurate prediction of events and associated decisions to overcome these events. Hence, having a comprehensive and accurate database will enable producers in decision-making with confidence.

To formulate policies based on production indicator variables, we must decompose the sources of risk or variation into the identifiable systematic and random components. The sources of risk are presented in percentages and sum to 100 for each year.
This is important because the decision maker must develop risk management tools based on the source(s) of risk or variation. Based on the sources of risk, producers can develop plans with respect to planting and marketing decisions to optimize net farm income and productivity. The study reveals that.

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